This Polymarket trader has placed 25 conviction trades and shows sharpest calibration on Politics markets. Recent positions lean toward Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 15?. 30-day P&L: +$12k across 22 open positions.
+$12k
30d P&L
-$2k
Open P&L
—
Rank
22
Open positions
— The headline differentiator
Calibration — How often this whale is right
Calibration — How Often This Whale Is Right
Prediction Error across this whale's most recent resolved Polymarket markets, broken down by category. Lower error means entry prices were closer to the truth. Only conviction trades (10k+ USD entry volume) are counted, and the sample is unweighted by position size — so a great score can still coexist with bad recent P&L.
Prediction Error
2.7%
10k+ trades scored