Who is Polymarket whale Substantial-Service?

Substantial-Service is a Polymarket trader (wallet 0x2c335066fe58fe9237c3d3dc7b275c2a034a0563). 30-day P&L: +$86k across 2 positions. Sharpest calibration on Sports markets (23% prediction error).

What is Substantial-Service's prediction error on Polymarket?

Substantial-Service's prediction error on Polymarket is 23% across the 99 most recent resolved 10k+ trades. Lower is better — 0% would be perfectly calibrated and ~25% is a coin flip.

What markets does Substantial-Service trade?

Substantial-Service's Polymarket volume breaks down as 94% on Sports, 6% on Other.

How accurate are Substantial-Service's predictions?

Substantial-Service's sharpest category is Sports with 23% prediction error across 81 resolved 10k+ trades. Calibration is more durable than P&L because it accounts for luck — luck doesn't move the score, only being right does.

2C

Polymarket whale Substantial-Service— calibration, trades & P&L

0x2c33…0563Polymarket profile ↗

Sports

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This Polymarket trader has placed 99 conviction trades and shows sharpest calibration on Sports markets. Recent positions lean toward Spurs vs. Timberwolves. 30-day P&L: +$86k across 2 open positions.

+$86k

30d P&L

+$8k

Open P&L

—

Rank

Open positions

— The headline differentiator

Calibration — How often this whale is right

Calibration — How Often This Whale Is Right

Prediction Error across this whale's most recent resolved Polymarket markets, broken down by category. Lower error means entry prices were closer to the truth. Only conviction trades (10k+ USD entry volume) are counted, and the sample is unweighted by position size — so a great score can still coexist with bad recent P&L.

Prediction Error

22.8%

10k+ trades scored

lower error = sharper

Polymarket whale Substantial-Service— calibration, trades & P&L

Calibration — How often this whale is right

Calibration — How Often This Whale Is Right

Realized & unrealized P&L

P&L performance

Open positions & recent Polymarket trades

Open positions (2)

Recent trades on Polymarket

Market mix

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Common questions about Substantial-Service

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